At the 2017 Nordic Symposium on Building Physics, held in Trondheim, Norway 11-14 June 2017, StruSoft and partners are presenting the first results of a collaborative development project on uncertainties in energy calculations. Other partners are the Swedish companies NCC Construction AB, EQUA Simulation AB and the Division of Mathematical Statistics at Lund University.
The project aims at developing statistical methods to make energy simulations for residential buildings more reliable. The research will clarify how large uncertainties there normally can be in the inputs used for energy simulations, and to identify the factors that are most important. By using a statistical method called Monte Carlo simulation technique, the extent of uncertainties in simulated energy use will be thoroughly examined. Once the size of the uncertainties is known, appropriate safety margins can be established for the benefit of contractors, consultants, architects, real estate companies and others.
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For more details download here the article Method for probabilistic energy calculations – variable parameters